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Potential Loss of Health Coverage due to Work Reporting Requirement (by Locality)

Virginia’s original estimate of coverage loss is extremely conservative, because it is based on calculations made prior to any state having implemented a work reporting requirement to access health coverage through Medicaid. Incorporating the real world experience of Arkansas, the only state to fully implement this type of program, is a vital step toward understanding the full impact that a work reporting requirement would have on people in Virginia. Given that Virginia’s work reporting requirement shares many high-level similarities with Arkansas, approximately 74,000 adults in Virginia could lose coverage if Virginia has a similar experience to Arkansas, in which 23% of the target population lost coverage.

The table shows potential loss of coverage in each locality based on the number of adults who have gained coverage through Medicaid expansion.

Locality (A-K) # of adults who gained health coverage through Medicaid expansion Estimate of adults who could lose coverage
Accomack 1,850 426
Albemarle 2,532 582
Alexandria 3,924 903
Alleghany 780 179
Amelia 599 138
Amherst 1,533 353
Appomattox 840 193
Arlington 3,597 827
Augusta 2,928 673
Bath 200 46
Bedford 2,871 660
Bland 267 61
Botetourt 820 189
Bristol 1,449 333
Brunswick 1,107 255
Buchanan 1,935 445
Buckingham 978 225
Buena Vista 383 88
Campbell 2,730 628
Caroline 1,472 339
Carroll 1,957 450
Charles City 313 72
Charlotte 708 163
Charlottesville 1,765 406
Chesapeake 8,828 2,030
Chesterfield 11,410 2,624
Clarke 326 75
Colonial Heights 922 212
Covington 393 90
Craig 232 53
Culpeper 1,957 450
Cumberland 655 151
Danville 4,120 948
Dickenson 1,146 264
Dinwiddie 1,411 325
Emporia 502 115
Essex 780 179
Fairfax 21,324 4,905
Fairfax City 486 112
Falls Church 155 36
Fauquier 1,731 398
Floyd 871 200
Fluvanna 841 193
Franklin 2,495 574
Franklin City 675 155
Frederick 2,609 600
Fredericksburg 1,569 361
Galax 604 139
Giles 795 183
Gloucester 1,730 398
Goochland 686 158
Grayson 1,023 235
Greene 784 180
Greensville 603 139
Halifax 2,264 521
Hampton 7,088 1,630
Hanover 2,536 583
Harrisonburg 1,935 445
Henrico 12,698 2,921
Henry 3,612 831
Highland 114 26
Hopewell 2,161 497
Isle of Wight 1,338 308
James City 1,957 450
King and Queen 370 85
King George 849 195
King William 659 152
Locality (L-Y) # of adults who gained health coverage through Medicaid expansion Estimate of adults who could lose coverage
Lancaster 516 119
Lee 2,017 464
Lexington 200 46
Loudoun 5,466 1,257
Louisa 1,666 383
Lunenburg 681 157
Lynchburg 4,252 978
Madison 608 140
Manassas City 1,208 278
Manassas Park 452 104
Martinsville 1,218 280
Mathews 410 94
Mecklenburg 1,625 374
Middlesex 640 147
Montgomery 2,706 622
Nelson 733 169
New Kent 513 118
Newport News 10,698 2,461
Norfolk 13,691 3,149
Northampton 865 199
Northumberland 646 149
Norton 336 77
Nottoway 971 223
Orange 1,426 328
Page 1,389 319
Patrick 1,087 250
Petersburg 3,149 724
Pittsylvania 3,491 803
Poquoson 231 53
Portsmouth 7,268 1,672
Powhatan 780 179
Prince Edward 1,094 252
Prince George 1,280 294
Prince William 12,045 2,770
Pulaski 2,025 466
Radford 644 148
Rappahannock 274 63
Richmond 519 119
Richmond City 15,378 3,537
Roaknoke 3,379 777
Roanoke City 6,666 1,533
Rockbridge 1,103 254
Rockingham 2,585 595
Russell 2,012 463
Salem 23 5
Scott 1,372 316
Shenandoah 1,864 429
Smyth 2,409 554
Southampton 946 218
Spotsylvania 5,119 1,177
Stafford 4,061 934
Staunton 1,355 312
Suffolk 3,777 869
Surry 349 80
Sussex 582 134
Tazewell 3,148 724
Virginia Beach 14,279 3,284
Warren 1,706 392
Washington 2,941 676
Waynesboro 1,255 289
Westmoreland 1,099 253
Williamsburg 472 109
Winchester 1,280 294
Wise 2,889 664
Wythe 1,967 452
York 1,336 307

Source: TCI analysis of Department of Medical Assistance Services Medicaid expansion enrollment data (as of 9/20/19); estimates based on applying 23% coverage loss as experienced in Arkansas

Virginia COMPASS Program Leading State Down The Wrong Path for Health Care

Full Report

Freddy Mejia

freddy@thecommonwealthinstitute.org

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