June 24, 2025
The Economic and Fiscal Impacts of Mass Deportation: What’s at Risk in Virginia
This is a joint report with the Immigration Research Initiative (IRI).
Key Findings
- There are nearly 1.2 million immigrants in Virginia, including 501,000 who are non-citizens, and among those an estimated 275,000 who are undocumented.1
- In 2022, people who are undocumented paid nearly $690 million in Virginia state and local taxes, contributing a larger percentage of their income to our shared resources than the wealthiest in the state. If 10% of people who are undocumented are deported, it would result in a loss of $69 million per year in state and local tax revenues.
- Immigrants, including those without documentation, are a vital part of Virginia’s communities and our economy. Detaining and deporting these workers would decrease the availability of important goods and services, further increasing costs.
- Farming: Over half of all crop workers in the United States are immigrants, and the majority of these immigrants are either undocumented or seasonal H-2A workers.2
- Restaurants: Nationwide, 7% of people working in the leisure and hospitality industry are undocumented. Immigrants, both documented and undocumented, make up 25% of the almost 61,000 cooks in Virginia, and many are likely at risk of deportation.
- Personal, home, and office: Nationwide, 11% of janitors, 18% of landscaping workers, 13% of nail technicians, and 16% of dry cleaning and laundry workers are undocumented. These workers, though often underappreciated, play a crucial role in our everyday lives. In Virginia, there are 16,000 janitors who are immigrants (both documented and undocumented), 7,000 landscaping workers, 7,000 nail technicians, and 16,000 maids and housekeepers.
- Construction: Nationally, 13% of all construction workers are undocumented. There are an estimated 75,000 immigrants who work in the construction industry in Virginia.
- Child care: In Virginia, 28% of all child care workers are immigrants, both documented and undocumented.3
The Fuller Story
Our neighbors who are immigrants move to the United States to seek safety, build a better life for their families, and more — many of the same reasons people move within the country. Our immigrant neighbors are integral to our communities in numerous ways, both culturally and economically, and face many of the same challenges as people who were born here. Rather than push real solutions that strengthen our communities and our economy, certain politicians spread fear and blame new immigrants, particularly people without documentation, for our challenges to divide and distract us.
The Trump Administration has already taken action, through executive orders and invoking emergency and wartime powers, to snatch away immigrants from our communities, their workplaces, and often from their families. In many cases, this may result in deportations, while in others, it may mean incarcerating people in detention centers indefinitely. The administration is also promising to radically reduce the number of aspiring citizens allowed into the country, and to strip some immigrants of the status and work authorization they currently hold.
Our immigrant neighbors who are most vulnerable are those without documentation. But the impact does not end there. People who have secured authorization to work may see their temporary visas terminated or their renewal denied. People who are seeking safety (Temporary Protected Status and asylum seekers), were brought to the U.S. as children and now have Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) status, and many others are also in a precarious position.
There are far-reaching social and humanitarian implications of this type of enforcement regime. But there is also an economic risk that can be quantified.
Immigrants are a Vital Part of Virginia’s Economy
- There are nearly 1.2 million immigrants in Virginia, including 501,000 who are non-citizens, and among those an estimated 275,000 who are undocumented.4
- Non-citizens include green card holders, as well as a number of people who are at risk of deportation or removal of immigration status, including those who are undocumented, people eligible for Temporary Protected Status, DACA recipients, H1-B and H2-A visa holders, asylum seekers, and others.
Deporting immigrants will come at a significant fiscal cost to Virginia and local governments
- In 2022, people who are undocumented paid an estimated $690 million in state and local taxes in Virginia.5 In Virginia and 39 other states, undocumented immigrants pay higher effective state and local tax rates than the top 1% of households in their states. Overall, undocumented immigrants pay 7.9% of their incomes toward state and local taxes, while the top 1% of households pay 7.2%, reflecting Virginia’s upside-down tax code.
- Deporting 275,000 people who do not have documentation from Virginia poses enormous logistical challenges, not to mention opposition based on legal and human rights issues. If, for the sake of argument, 1 out of 10 people who are undocumented were deported or put into detention camps, that would result in a loss of $69 million per year in state and local tax revenue. This is more than the state general fund cost of increasing the income eligibility for children’s health coverage in Virginia from 205% of the federal poverty limit (FPL) to 255% of the FPL (an annual income of approximately $82,000 for a family of four in 2025).
- These projected impacts underestimate the actual loss, since they do not include the disruption to businesses and communities caused by conducting raids and other actions, the impacts to family members who lose a breadwinner, or the costs to the foster care system for children who wind up without parents in the United States.
- Recent immigrants and people who are undocumented are excluded from many public benefits, meaning any potential “savings” from forcibly removing people from our communities are likely to be small.
- A realistic pathway to gain legal status would be more effective, allowing us to work together to improve our communities. That approach would increase Virginia state and local tax revenues by $167 million.6
Rescinding status and restricting immigration will further hurt our economy
Virginia stands to lose a lot as the Trump Administration follows through on threats to remove the temporary status of immigrants who have it today, radically change the treatment of asylum seekers, and shut down refugee resettlement programs, which help people restart their lives in America when returning to their home country is no longer a safe option.
An estimated 7,800 people with active DACA status in Virginia are at risk of being removed from our communities.7
People who aim to temporarily work in the United States through “guest worker” visas such as H-1B, which are intended for highly skilled workers, and H-2A visas for seasonal agricultural workers, are at risk of being denied new or renewed visas. While these programs are ripe for improvement — they can exploit workers and, unlike other immigration categories, have been shown to have adverse impacts on other workers — simply eliminating these opportunities without creating better options will be a significant challenge for employers.
Virginia has a strong network of refugee resettlement agencies that welcomed 2,500 refugees from October 2023 to September 2024.8
Where Virginia’s Economy and Daily Life Are Most at Risk
Forcibly removing people en masse and further restricting people’s ability to fully participate in our communities pose widespread and unpredictable threats to Virginia’s economy.
- Forcibly removing large numbers of working people from Virginia’s labor force would mean an increase in the cost of living for all of us, as we would pay more for restaurants, child care, home health aides, construction, and more. Costs will go up not only because immigrants are often underpaid, but more fundamentally because there will be an under-supply of workers.
- Deporting working people without documentation would result in a predictable decline in the number of jobs for U.S.-born workers, according to a leading journal article on the subject.9 Contrary to popular belief, deporting immigrants reduces the number of jobs for other workers. Reasons include: declining purchasing power for immigrants, which reduces local demand; a decline in the number of complementary workers — fewer cooks and dishwashers means fewer waiters, fewer construction laborers means fewer construction managers; and a decline in child care workers would be a barrier for young parents to enter the workforce.
Some areas of Virginia’s economy that are particularly at risk include:
- Farming: Over half of all crop workers in the United States are immigrants, the vast majority of whom are either undocumented or seasonal H-2A workers, both categories of immigrants who have been threatened by the current administration.10 Pay and working conditions are in dire need of improvement for farm workers. But the likely result of deporting current immigrants and restricting new immigration is not an improvement in working conditions, but a decline in farming. Farms in Virginia are a source of fresh milk, top-quality apples, and vegetables and other produce enjoyed around the state and sold for export. Farms are also important to the economic and social vitality of rural communities, enhance the local landscape, and are part of a growing agritourism industry. Removing immigrants from farm work would be nearly unimaginable, and reducing the number of immigrant workers by even 5% or 10% would significantly harm our communities and our ability to feed our families.
- Restaurants: Immigrants play a big role in America’s restaurants: in the “front of the house” jobs serving diners, in the “back of the house” jobs in the kitchen, and in so many cases as restaurant owners. Overall, in the United States, immigrants who are undocumented make up 7% of all workers in the leisure and hospitality industry. Undocumented immigrants play a particularly big role in the restaurant industry. Roughly 1 in 8 cooks (275,000), chefs/head cooks (60,000), and dishwashers (45,000) are people who are undocumented.9
State-level data that shows the number of people in each job category who are at immediate risk due to not having documentation is unavailable. However, the data that is available highlights the contributions of immigrants to our communities, regardless of immigration status. In Virginia, 1 in 4 cooks (15,000) , 1 in 3 chefs/head cooks (4,000), and 1 in 6 dishwashers (1,000) are immigrants (including both those who are documented and undocumented).10 - Personal, home, and office: In the United States, immigrants who are at risk of deportation play an important, if often invisible, role in a range of occupations that touch our everyday lives. There are 275,000 janitors (11% of the total), 230,000 landscaping workers (18% of the total), 35,000 nail technicians (13%), 20,000 dry cleaning and laundry workers (16%), and 1 in 4 maids and housekeepers working in homes as well as hotels and other workplaces (325,000 people) who are undocumented.
While state-level data on undocumented workers in each category is limited, available data shows yet again that immigrants play a crucial role in communities across the commonwealth. In Virginia, nearly 26% of janitors (16,000) are immigrants (documented and undocumented). Over 20% of landscaping workers (7,000), 84% of nail technicians (7,000), 1 out of 3 laundry and dry cleaning workers (2,000), and 2 out of 5 maids and housekeepers (16,000) who work in homes, hotels, and other locations are immigrants. - Construction: Nationally, 1.4 million people who are undocumented work in the construction industry, making up 13% of all construction workers. Looking at detailed occupations across all industries, 18% of construction laborers, 14% of carpenters, 20% of painters, and 17% of roofers do not have authorization to work in the U.S.
Removing thousands of workers from the labor force, many of whom are also union members, would increase the cost of construction, ultimately limiting the total construction feasible during a historic housing shortage.
In Virginia, we do not have detailed estimates of undocumented workers in particular, but one quarter of the over 300,000 workers in the construction industry in Virginia are immigrants.
Immigrants, including undocumented immigrants, are a part of our state’s economic engine, and, most importantly, a part of our communities. Whether we were born here or we moved here, we all face many of the same challenges — rising cost of food, unaffordable housing, and more. That shared perspective can allow us to collaborate on real solutions, rather than spread misguided fear that hurts all of us in the end. State and local governments that participate in federal immigration enforcement will not only take on additional costs related to enforcement activity and erode public trust, but could also cause us to miss out on much of what our immigrant neighbors bring to our communities. Instead, we must work together to build systems that reflect our values, recognize each of our contributions, and provide a safe, realistic pathway to fully participating in our communities.
— David Dyssegaard Kallick (IRI), Shamier Settle (IRI), Freddy Mejia (TCI), and Briana Jones (TCI).
Suggested Citation: David Kallick, Shamier Settle, Freddy Mejia, and Briana Jones, May 2025, The Economic and Fiscal Impacts of Mass Deportation: What’s at Risk in Virginia
Endnotes
- State-level data about all immigrants, documented and undocumented, is from Immigration Research Initiative analysis of the 2022 American Community Survey 5-year data
- National estimates of the number of undocumented workers were provided to IRI by Jeff Passel of the Pew Research Center and are based on an analysis of the 2022 American Community Survey, consistent with the analysis in “What We Know About Unauthorized Immigrants in the U.S.,” Pew Research Center, July 22, 2024
- “Immigrants are a Vital Part of Virginia’s Future,” Immigration Research Initiative, Economic Policy Institute, and The Commonwealth Institute, Oct 2024
- For the number of immigrants, non-citizen immigrants, and estimate of immigrants who are undocumented, see the Immigration Research Initiative fact sheet, “50 States: Immigrants by Number and Share.” Number of immigrants and non-citizen immigrants are an IRI analysis of the 2023 ACS. Number of immigrants who are undocumented is estimated by the Pew Research Center based on the 2022 ACS. The fact sheet gives parallel estimates from the Center for Migration Studies (2022 ACS) and from the Migration Policy Institute (2019 5-year data).
- Davis, et al. “Tax Payments by Undocumented Immigrants,” Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, July 30, 2024.
- Ibid.
- “Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) Data Tools,” Migration Policy Institute
- Refugee Arrivals by State and Nationality, Refugee Processing Center
- East, et al. “The Labor Market Effects of Immigration Enforcement,” Journal of Labor Economics, vol 41, number 4. This work is summarized in an accessible fashion by Chloe N. East in “The Labor Market Impact of Deportations,” The Hamilton Project, Sept. 18, 2024. The study finds that for every 500,000 people deported, 44,000 U.S.-born people lose their jobs. We estimate down slightly to about 2\4,000 by scaling from 500,000 to 275,000 and then to 32,500
- Gutiérrez-Li, A., “Feeding America: How Immigrants Sustain US Agriculture,” Baker Institute for Public Policy, July 19, 2024
