Potential Loss of Health Coverage due to Work Reporting Requirement (by Locality)

This is part of TCI’s report: Virginia COMPASS Program Leading State Down The Wrong Path for Health Care

Virginia’s original estimate of coverage loss is extremely conservative, because it is based on calculations made prior to any state having implemented a work reporting requirement to access health coverage through Medicaid. Incorporating the real world experience of Arkansas, the only state to fully implement this type of program, is a vital step toward understanding the full impact that a work reporting requirement would have on people in Virginia. Given that Virginia’s work reporting requirement shares many high-level similarities with Arkansas, approximately 74,000 adults in Virginia could lose coverage if Virginia has a similar experience to Arkansas, in which 23% of the target population lost coverage.

The table shows potential loss of coverage in each locality based on the number of adults who have gained coverage through Medicaid expansion.

Source: TCI analysis of Department of Medical Assistance Services Medicaid expansion enrollment data (as of 9/20/19); estimates based on applying 23% coverage loss as experienced in Arkansas